Superforecasting
Superforecasting
Mastering the Science of Accurate Prediction
About This Book
Superforecasting (2015) examines how people predict future events, revealing that conventional wisdom and expert opinions frequently miss the mark. By presenting compelling case studies and conversations with influential figures, the book demonstrates what separates accurate forecasters from those who guess poorly: systematic analysis rooted in evidence, thinking in probabilities instead of certainties, willingness to be held accountable, and flexibility when circumstances change.
Who Should Read This?
- People who make decisions professionally and want to improve their prediction skills
- Those fascinated by probability theory and the science of anticipating outcomes
- Anyone interested in forecasting who aims to achieve superforecaster-level performance
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